Category: Uncategorized
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Brandolini’s Law or the “BS Asymmetry Principle”
“The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than that needed to produce it.”
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The Pregnancy Fallacy
Systematic failures in ChatGPT – Don’t throw the baby out with the bath water This image used from Andrei Lopatenko‘s LinkedIn post I’ve seen a lot of examples of how ChatGPT gets verbal math problems wrong, basically failing 5th grade algebra. In the example above, the chat bot misunderstands tasks which inherently need to be…
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Starting on the Dawn Wall
In 2016 I started climbing with a guy from California who had a lot of baseline athleticism, but no background in the sport. He was learning everything I knew tremendously quickly and was excited to tell a friend back home about his new hobby. Somehow the friend, with no experience had seen movie trailers for…
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Percentiles: useful, but not inherently meaningful
Percentile ranking data is one of the fastest ways to order it for superficial analysis and can be used to build sub-categories such as quartiles or deciles for deeper insights. My daughter and my niece are in opposite tails of the percentile distribution for size and weight of children at their respective ages – but…
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RPA vs Process Overhaul
It took my roommate only 3 weeks and a desktop application to automate my first job. The first job I did after college was domestic airline pricing. I moved to a new city where I knew no one to take the job because it sounded like a great way to apply my econ degree and…
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Red Flags — When to decline to bid
This Atlantic article about how flimsy Musk’s deal-break lawsuit is made me think: Defense lawyers must get awful clients a lot of the time but other industries, like consulting, face similar issues. In strategy consulting here are some red flags I’ve seen in RFP cycles that could mean a project will be miserable to attempt…
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The 90% Shock Test
I made this quiz in Involve.Me with content from Annie Duke’s book How To Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices. The final questions are her “Shock Test” where you answer 10 questions with numerical answers with your best bull’s eye estimate, a lower bound and an upper bound. Your goal is to set the bounds as…
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Triangulation to a Decision
The most satisfying and engaging pricing research I ever did was for Capella University regarding the pricing level and structures for their PhD programs. The group I worked in was called “Knowledge, Insights & Analytics”. Each of the folks I worked with in that group was motivated, intelligent and taught me something useful. For the…
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Otter Review
Tobias Zwingmann recommended some AI based productivity tools so I decided to try Otter which1)records meetings,2)provides a transcript and3)provides a beta meeting summary4)Shows % time allocation for each speaker5)Provides summary of Keywords from the meeting (not sure how weighting is assigned here) Its pretty cool, but I’d give it 3/5 stars for the following reasons:1) The…
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Gifts for 2023: Saving other people’s time
As we think of what we can give each other for the holidays and we set New Year’s resolution the one thing we would all like is more time. Keith Helfrich linked me to The Knowledge Project podcast with startup founder Sahil Lavingia. He talks about his favorite people who are thoughtful enough to do the…
Carragee Consulting 